When Is the Housing Market’s Black Friday?

Inman says that according to data from Trulia, Black Friday for real estate buyers happens in August, when 13.9% of house prices will be cut. In December, only 8.3% of sellers will have slashed prices. This doesn’t jive with what I’ve seen in the Seattle market.

The chart below compares outcomes for home sales that closed during each of the past 12 months. “Poor outcomes” include listings that sold under asking price and listings that have undergone at least one price drop. “Good outcomes” represent listings that sold at or above asking price.

Since there is typically a ~30 day lag between contract signing and sale closing, it seems October, November and December offer the highest probability for a poor outcome (and therefore a good deal for the buyer).

 

Month Price Drop Under Asking Poor Outcomes Good Outcomes
Nov 2016 25.53% 16.60% 42.13% 57.87%
Dec 2016 28.97% 19% 47.98% 52.02%
Jan 2017 31.04% 19.07% 50.11% 49.89%
Feb 2017 24.75% 12.88% 37.63% 62.37%
Mar 2017 15.86% 10.89% 26.75% 73.25%
Apr 2017 12.21% 8.76% 20.97% 79.03%
May 2017 11.75% 8.75% 20.50% 79.50%
Jun 2017 10.25% 10.01% 20.26% 79.74%
Jul 2017 11.32% 12.79% 24% 76%
Aug 2017 16.32% 14.27% 30.59% 69.41%
Sep 2017 18.17% 14.31% 32.47% 67.53%
Oct 2017 17.33% 15.48% 32.81% 67.19%

 

Posted on November 14, 2017 at 9:32 pm
Isabel Wang | Category: Uncategorized

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